Trade growth in India remains positive amidst global contraction

• Ocean trade set to remain robust in the coming
  three months, with imports showing particularly strong growth
• Trade in Land Vehicles & Parts, Temperature
  or Climate Control goods, and both Basic and Industrial Raw Materials continues
  to sustain overall growth

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MUMBAI , INDIA - Media OutReach - 8 July 2019 - The DHL Global Trade
Barometer (or “Barometer”), an early indicator of global trade developments
calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, predicts trade in India
will grow in the third quarter of 2019, albeit at a slower rate with the
country’s overall trade index declining 6 points to 53. It is the only one of
four countries in Asia tracked by the Global Trade Barometer to still register
an index value of above 50. [1]

 

 

“Amidst heightened and prolonged volatility,
India’s economy remains a notable positive exception to the trend of global
trade contraction. As the country with the most bullish trade forecasts in
previous iterations of the Global Trade Barometer, India’s historic pace of
trade growth has so far cushioned it somewhat against global contractionary
sentiment. Nevertheless, the country’s marked slowdown in trade growth suggests
businesses remain reluctant to overexpose themselves to global trade
volatility.” said Niki Frank, Managing Director for DHL Global Forwarding India.

 

Strong ocean trade will contribute significantly
to that growth with an index value of 59: ocean imports of both Industrial and
Basic Raw Materials are expected to remain strong, along with ocean exports of Basic Raw Materials, Chemicals and
Products and Temperature and Climate Control goods [2] .
However, air trade looks set to contract with an index of just 45, due to
softening exports of Consumer Fashion Goods; persistent weakness in High
Technology and Machinery imports; and a sharp decline in exports of Chemicals
and Products.

 

Latest results show negative effects of trade wars

For the first time in six quarters, the
Barometer’s results predict a slight decline in global trade in the coming
three months, with its overall world trade outlook dropping to just 48 index
points. The continued trade disputes between the US and China have contributed
significantly to that decline, with both countries experiencing the largest
declines in their trade outlook (-11 points for the US, -7 points for China)
out of all countries surveyed by the Barometer.

 

Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath,
CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said, “Amidst rising US-Chinese
tensions, the slightly negative outlook for global trade for the third quarter
of 2019 does not come as a complete surprise. The latest GTB clearly
illustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some major
economies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from a
year-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, we
remain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overall
positive, but slower trade growth.”

 

Scharwath added, “The GTB is a useful tool for us
to anticipate economic developments at an early stage. We are well-prepared to
tackle the forecasted developments. Our divisional structure and portfolio as
well as our worldwide activities allow us to balance economic effects within
the company and remain resilient to changes in global trade dynamics.”

About the Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator
is published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for September
2019.

 

For more information on the DHL Global Trade
Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.

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