Pace of Growth Declines Further for Japanese Trade

• Air exports in the automobile, machinery and chemicals industry to
  sustain growth despite overall trade heading towards deflation
• Bullish ocean import outlook of Basic Raw Materials set to make
  significant contribution to trade growth

TOKYO, JAPAN – Media
OutReach – December 10,
2019 – Air exports within the automobile,
machinery and chemicals industry will offer some upside to trade growth in
Japan for the three-month period ending in January 2020, even as the country’s
growth falls into negative territory, according to data from the DHL Global
Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator
of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big
Data, predicts that Japan’s trade levels will contract in near term, with the
country’s index value decreasing by five points to 48 points — below the
no-growth threshold of 50 points on the Index.[1]
The negative growth stems primarily from shrinking air trade across industries,
though certain core sectors like automobile manufacturing are expected to
remain relatively strong and offset the significant decline in other export
areas.[2]

“Despite a contraction in the forecast for
the next three months, Japan’s trade outlook remains relatively robust thanks
to the strong base provided by core industries such as automotive
manufacturing, machinery and technology,” said Charles Kaufmann, CEO North Asia
South Pacific, DHL Global Forwarding. “Exports for Land Vehicles & Parts
look set to make notable contributions to trade growth off the back of industry
consolidation and greater investment in electric and self-driving vehicles.
We also see the upcoming Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games contributing to the bullish
outlook for imports of Basic Raw Materials over the next quarter, with the
Games expected to have positive impacts on
the Japanese economy across the board.”

Steady but mild
decline negatively affects all countries, except India

The Barometer’s results also suggest that
world trade is expected to continue at moderate pace but further contract for
the next three months, driven by minor decreases in both air and containerized
ocean trade. Against previous quarters this year, the downward trend in trade
growth remains mostly stable, neither indicating an acceleration of the decline
nor a bottoming out of contractionary movement. All seven nations monitored by
the Barometer received indexes below 50 points except for India, where the Barometer
forecasts moderate growth of five points to 54 points for India. While Japan and the UK had been
the only countries with positive trade outlooks in the previous update in
September, the two countries record the highest losses in this period.

“According
to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably end with moderate
world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid
growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing the Mount
Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air”,
Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says. “A countless number
of stable trade relations continues to flourish worldwide, despite smouldering
trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.”

About the Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global
Trade Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current
state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of
logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The
indicator is published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled
for end of March 2020.

For more information on the DHL Global
Trade Barometer, please visit:  logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb.
The index is now also available for subscribers of the Bloomberg terminal
by using the code “DHLG “.

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