Interim Management Statement 1 January�30 September 2022

Finnvera Group, Stock Exchange Release 10 November 2022

Interim Management Statement 1 January�30 September 2022

Corporate investments and demand for financing declining – Finnvera Group’s result in January–September showed a loss of EUR 19 million

Finnvera Group, summary Jan–Sep/2022 (vs. Jan–Sep /2021 or 31 December 2021)

• Result -19 MEUR (106) – the loss provisions made at the beginning of the year due to the export credit guarantee exposure in Russia remained unchanged – as yet, there were no grounds for reversing loss provisions made in 2020. 
• Result by segments:
  • Result of the parent company Finnvera plc’s SME and midcap business 16 MEUR (19) and the result of Large Corporates business came to -64 MEUR (56).
  • The subsidiary Finnish Export Credit Ltd had an impact of 29 MEUR (30) on the Group’s result.
• The separate result for export credit guarantee and special guarantee operations was -79 MEUR (58).
• Balance sheet total EUR 12.9 bn (12.2), increase 5%.
• Contingent liabilities stood at EUR 16.3 bn (15.9), increase 2%
• The total exposure of the parent company Finnvera plc increased by 1% to EUR 25.9 bn (25.6).
• Non-restricted equity and the State Guarantee Fund, that is, the buffer reserves in total, stood at EUR 1.3 bn (1.4) and decreased by 4%.
• The expected credit losses based on the balance sheet items stood at EUR 1.6 bn (1.4), increasing by 16% from the end of the previous year.
• Equity ratio decreased by 0.5 pp to 6.5% (7.1%).
• The expense-income ratio improved by 4.6 pp to 19.1% (23.7%).
• Net promoter score (NPS) index, measuring customer satisfaction, 73 (68) – the improvement in the NPS index for Locally operating small companies and SMEs seeking growth and internationalisation boosted the average.

Finnvera Group, Jan–Sep/2022
Result Jan–Sep/2022 -19 MEUR (Jan–Sep/2021: 106 MEUR)	Balance sheet total 30 Sep 2022 EUR 12.9 bn (31 Dec 2021: EUR 12.2 bn) change 5%
Total exposure, the parent company’s domestic, export credit guarantee and special guarantee operations 30 Sep 2022 EUR 25.9 bn (31 Dec 2021: EUR 25.6 bn)  change 1%	Non-restricted equity and The State Guarantee Fund after Jan–Sep/2022 result 30 Sep 2022 EUR 1.3 bn (31 Dec 2021: EUR 1.4 bn) change -4%
Expense-income ratio Jan–Sep/2022 19.1% (Jan–Sep/2021: 23.7%) change -4.6 pp	Equity ratio 30 Sep 2022 6.5% (31 Dec 2021: 7.1%) change  -0.5 pp
NPS index (net promoter score) Jan–Sep/2022 73 (Jan–Sep/2021: 68) change 5 points	Expected credit losses based on the balance sheet items 30 Sep 2022 EUR 1.6 bn (31 Dec 2021: EUR 1.4 bn) change 16%

CEO Pauli Heikkilä:

“The situation of SMEs and export transactions is still positive, but the outlook for next year is exceptionally cautious. We expect the investment activity to slow down, and we can see that the demand for domestic financing will start to decline. The reasons for this are the impacts of the war launched by Russia, component supply challenges, inflation, rise in interest rates and the forecast recession. On the other hand, there are differences between sectors. The energy crisis and green transition have brought new growth opportunities for companies providing innovative solutions.

In export financing, the development has remained positive in the pulp and paper, telecommunications, energy as well as mining and metals sectors. Cruise shipping has slowly started to recover from the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. The export outlook is affected by the fact that the Finnish exports, with the focus on investment goods, react to economic cycles post-cyclically. The order books of companies still extend some time forward, but uncertainty slows down the planning of new projects.

The Finnvera Group’s result for January–September showed a loss of EUR 19 million. The amount of loss provisions and potential changes in them contribute to the result. As yet, there were no grounds for reversing the extensive loss provisions made in the cruise shipping sector in the first COVID-19 year 2020. Due to the increase in the export credit guarantee exposure in Russia, we issued a negative profit warning on 11 March 2022. The loss provisions for exposure in Russia recognised at the beginning of the year amounted to EUR 210 million. As a result of the arrangements made due to the war and sanctions, Finnvera’s exposure in Russia has more than halved from the end of 2021 to approximately EUR 463 million. As regards domestic operations, the result will be affected by the State’s credit and guarantee loss compensation being possibly returned to 50 per cent. In the early phases of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the compensation was temporarily raised to 80 per cent. If the change is realised, the result for the domestic operations in 2022 will show a loss.

Within its financing authorisations, Finnvera will be able to meet the financing needs of companies. In addition, Parliament is currently considering the legislative amendment on enabling direct lending to foreign buyers aimed at accelerating export transactions. Corporate responsibility, and climate change mitigation in particular, are at the heart of our strategy, and, accordingly, we restrict granting of export credit guarantees for oil and gas projects. As concerns fossil fuels, export guarantees for coal-fired power plants were already excluded a year ago.”

Finnvera Group, financing granted and exposure

Jan–Sep /2022 (vs. Jan–Sep /2021) 

• Domestic loans and guarantees granted: 664 MEUR (1,079), change -38%
• Export credit guarantees and special guarantees granted, incl. SME and midcap export credit guarantees: EUR 3.6 bn (3.3), change 11%
• Export credits granted: 891 MEUR (655), change 36%
  • The credit risk for Finnish Export Credit Ltd’s export credits is covered by the parent company Finnvera plc’s export credit guarantee.
  • Timing of large single export transactions affects the fluctuation of the amount of export credit guarantees and export credits.

30 Sep 2022 (vs. 31 Dec 2021)

• Exposure, drawn domestic loans and guarantees: EUR 2.7 bn (3.0), change -11%
• Exposure, export credit guarantees and special guarantees, incl. SME and midcap export credit guarantees: EUR 23.2 bn (22.6), change 3%
  • Drawn exposure: EUR 14.0 bn (12.1), change 15%, of which Large Corporates’ cruise shipping exposure in total EUR 6.4 bn (5.4)
  • Undrawn exposure EUR 7.1 bn (7.4) and binding offers EUR 2.1 bn (3.1 bn), in total EUR 9.2 bn (10.5), change -12%, of which Large Corporates’ cruise shipping exposure in total EUR 5.5 bn (6.4).
• Exposure, export credits drawn: EUR 7.5 bn (7.9), change -6%

Financial performance

Finnvera Group  Financial performance	1–9/2022 MEUR	1–9/2021 MEUR	Change MEUR	Change %	2021 MEUR
Net interest income	50	41	9	22%	55
Net fee and commission income	155	117	37	32%	167
Gains and losses from financial instruments carried at fair value through P&L and foreign exchange gains and losses	3	2	1	79%	2
Other operating income	42	0	41	–	4
Operational expenses	-35	-32	4	11%	-46
Other operating expenses and depreciations	-5	-6	-2	-28%	-8
Realised credit losses and change in expected credit losses, net	-222	-9	213	–	-11
Operating profit/loss	-12	113	-126	–	164
Profit/loss for the period	-19	106	-125	–	153

The Finnvera Group’s result for January–September 2022 showed a loss of EUR 19 million, whereas the result for the corresponding period last year showed a profit of EUR 106 million. The negative result was due to loss provisions of EUR 210 million made for export credit guarantee exposure in Russia during the first quarter, the amount of which remained unchanged in the third quarter. Furthermore, there were no grounds for reversing the extensive loss provisions of EUR 1,222 million made in 2020, since no substantial reduction in the credit risk of guarantee commitments in cruise shipping was assessed to have taken place. The amount of realised credit losses in the period under review was EUR 28 million (34).

The total exposure in Russia decreased by 53%, from EUR 977 million to EUR 463 million, as a result of the arrangements and early repayments made during the period under review. At the end of September, drawn exposure accounted for EUR 456 million of total exposure. Impacted by the loss provisions, the separate result for export credit guarantee and special guarantee operations showed a loss of EUR 120 million, of which EUR 41 million was recognised as a receivable from the State Guarantee Fund as a fund payment. The State Guarantee Fund is a fund not included in the state budget, the funds of which have been accumulated in the activities of Finnvera’s predecessor organisations. The Fund covers the result showing a loss in the export credit guarantee and special guarantee operations if the reserve funds in the company’s balance sheet are not sufficient.

The net interest income and net fee and commission income improved in January–September compared to the previous year and also compared to the years before the coronavirus pandemic. The net interest income was EUR 9 million higher than in the previous year, especially as a result of gains made by the interest and investment positions. Correspondingly, net fee and commission income increased by EUR 37 million compared to the previous year, which was, in particular, due to the fee and commission income from the restructuring of financing agreements made and the recognition of guarantee premiums received in advance from early repayments of liabilities during the period under review.

Taking into account the result of the period under review, as per 30 September, Finnvera’s domestic and export financing reserves for covering potential future losses amounted to a total of EUR 1,139 million (1,224). The reserves consisted of non-restricted equity for domestic financing of EUR 430 million (399), non-restricted equity for export credit and special guarantee financing as well as assets in the State Guarantee Fund for covering a loss-making result totalling EUR 709 million (825).

Risk position of financing

At the end of September, the exposure for drawn domestic loans and guarantees amounted to EUR 2,397 million and it decreased by EUR 252 million from the end of the previous year.

The distribution of the domestic financing credit portfolio met the targets during the year. Risks pertaining to individual clients and the amounts of non-performing credits and arrears remained at a reasonable level. Expected loss (EL) for exposure fell from the level of 3.55 per cent at the end of the previous year, being 2.96 per cent of total exposure at the end of September. Correspondingly, improvement has taken place in the division of exposure per risk category.

At the end of September, the total exposure arising from export credit guarantees and special guarantees was EUR 23,214 million (22,637). Approximately 74 per cent of the outstanding export credit guarantees and special guarantees totalling EUR 21,100 million (19,500) and binding offers totalling EUR 2,114 million (3,137) were associated with transactions in EU Member States and OECD countries. Altogether, 28 per cent of the exposure was in risk category BBB-, which reflects investment grade, or in better risk categories.

Outlook for 2022

While no significant, individual final export credit guarantee losses were realised during the first three quarters, the credit risk level remains significantly high due to the uncertain economic outlook.

The uncertainties concern cruise shipping and exposure in Russia in particular. As stated in financial review H1/2022, the recovery of cruise shipping from the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the weakened global economic outlook continue to cause significant uncertainty regarding Finnvera Group’s financial performance in 2022. Changes in the amount of loss provisions and potential final losses will have a considerable impact on whether the Group result will show a loss or profit. Furthermore, if the compensation for credit and guarantee losses for domestic operations is returned from 80 per cent to 50 per cent, the result for domestic operations will show a loss, and the change may impact to Finnvera Group result showing a loss in 2022.

Further information:

Pauli Heikkilä, CEO, tel. +358 29 460 2400

Ulla Hagman, CFO, tel. +358 29 460 2458

This stock exchange release is a summary of Finnvera Group’s Interim Management Statement of January–September 2022 and contains the relevant information from the report. The Interim Management Statement in its entirety is attached to this bulletin as a PDF file and is available on the company’s website at www.finnvera.fi.

Interim Management Statement 1 January – 30 September 2022 (PDF)

Distribution:

NASDAQ Helsinki Ltd, London Stock Exchange, the principal media, www.finnvera.fi

The report is available in Finnish and English at www.finnvera.fi/ financial_reports

Attachment

• Interim_Management_Statement_1_Jan–30_Sep_2022