India to lead global economic growth in Q2 2019 amidst overall slowdown in international trade

• India maintains the highest forecasted growth
  amongst all seven countries on DHL’s Global Trade Barometer, even as its air
  and ocean trade volumes decline
• Personal Household Goods, Temperature or Climate
  Controlled Goods, and Land Vehicles & Parts expected to contribute most to
  India’s modest growth

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MUMBAI, INDIA - Media OutReach - 8 April 2019 – India’s
pace of growth looks set to remain the highest of the world’s largest economies
despite a decrease in both air and ocean trade growth, according to data from
the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics
company.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence
and Big Data, revealed that India’s trade growth outlook — coming in at 59
points on the Index — will be driven primarily by an uptake in both imports and
exports of Personal Household Goods, Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods
and Land Vehicles & Parts, which increased in index points by 19, 16 and 2
respectively. However, India’s ocean trade dropped sharply by almost 20 points
to 63, while air trade is also expected to stagnate in the coming quarter.

 

“India has not been immune to the current global
economic climate, but businesses operating in the country can afford to remain
positive: despite increasing headwinds, India has managed to maintain the
highest predicted trade growth of all the GTB countries,” said Kevin Leung,
CEO, Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “With its annual GDP growth rate still
running at an impressive 7.5%, India remains somewhat insulated from global
trade volatility thanks to high domestic private consumption, which accounts
for 60% of the country’s GDP and is expected to generate up to $6 trillion in
opportunities for growth.[1]
It’s no surprise that the Personal Household Goods sector is seeing a steady
increase on the ocean import side, while a decrease in air exports of Consumer
Fashion Goods appears to have been largely offset by high domestic consumption.”

 

The Barometer’s results also suggest that global
trade growth looks set to slow down over the next three months, signaling only
a slight growth. However, the top three nations with the highest indexes are all
in Asia, namely India, Japan, and China. Indices for all seven countries that
constitute the Global Trade Barometer index — including the US, UK and Germany
— are above 50 points except for South Korea. In the Global Trade Barometer
methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values
below 50 indicate contraction.

 

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. In order to
make this valuable data accessible for academic research and to increase the
macroeconomic significance of the indicator, DHL recently entered into research
cooperation with Eswar S. Prasad, Professor of Trade Policy and Economics at
Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, USA. The indicator is published four times a
year and the next release date is scheduled for June 2019.

 

You can find the press release for download as
well as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases

On the Internet: dpdhl.de/press

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