COVID-19 Likely a Geopolitical Game Changer in Asia: Aon 2020 Risk Maps

HONG KONG, CHINA – Media OutReach – August 6, 2020 – Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global
professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health
solutions, has published its 2020
Risk Maps report, which finds that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
will likely transform the geopolitical landscape. Extraordinary public health
measures and a precipitous drop in global trade will continue to exert
significant pressure on economies and governments and will reshape
long-standing geopolitical norms.  

 

Aon developed the 2020 Risk
Maps in partnership with The
Risk Advisory Group and Continuum
Economics, which examine political risk, terrorism and political violence
globally. Aon’s Risk Maps are designed to help firms better
understand and navigate evolving exposures created by these uniquely
challenging risks.

 

In today’s complex geopolitical
and economic environment, the maps enable clients to identify and track the
different sources and degrees of risk, assisting businesses in planning and
protecting assets, contracts and loans that could be adversely affected. This
year’s report includes a special analysis of the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on these themes and the risks they present.

 

The socioeconomic implications
of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be profound. Countries that rely heavily
on tourism or retail, or where there is a higher human toll from the pandemic,
will face greater potential for civil unrest and government-focused protest — a
risk that was already elevated prior to the pandemic. Aon’s report finds three
in five developed economies face the potential of strikes, riots and
civil unrest in 2020 — and it seems the COVID-19 pandemic will
deepen those concerns.

 

Rapidly Evolving Risks in Asia

 

In Hong Kong, political unrest
has caused widespread physical damage to property and business. Most big
companies typically have comprehensive coverage that includes cover for strikes,
riots, and other civil commotion (SRCC). But many of these policies have
specific language that excludes loss or damage due to political unrest, which
is commonly referred to as the terrorism exclusion clause. With the new Hong Kong security law potentially broadening
the activities that  could be considered
as acts of terrorism, the scope of the terrorism exclusion clause may now
extend considerably. The SRCC, therefore, has the potential to become the
number one peril faced by businesses in Hong Kong, causing more of a risk than
the more standard threats such as fire, flood or typhoon.

 

Julian Taylor, head of Crisis
Management, Asia, Aon said, “To address these rapidly evolving risks, we are
seeing businesses turn to the terrorism and political violence insurance market
for tailored solutions. These standalone policies can cover not only the property
damage elements of the risk but also business interruption, and not only financial
loss arising from direct physical loss or damage but also as a result of
contingent risks, such as denial of access or loss of attraction. Boards, CFOs
and risk managers need to work closely with brokers and insurers to move
forward with confidence and certainty in this volatile market.”

 

Steve
Taylor, head of Credit Solutions, Asia, Aon said, “Political volatility is increasing, driven by a number of themes,
including the socioeconomic and political reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic.
We expect political risk insurance to play an increasingly important role for
investors, lenders and corporations, underpinning strategy and financing as
well as mitigating currency risk, expropriation, political violence and
sovereign non-payment risk.”

 

Additional key findings from the report include:

 

Civil Unrest, Terrorism and Political Violence

• Economic stagnation and frustration over a range of
  political, social and environmental trends are the primary drivers of
  heightened unrest in traditionally stable economies.
• Environmentalism is becoming an increasingly
  prominent cause of civil unrest.
• Extreme right-wing attacks are increasing and
  multinational businesses, particularly within the technology, banking and media
  sectors, are targets.

 

Political Risks

• Governments are increasingly resorting to measures
  that regulate market transactions. Emerging market governments have responded
  to rising populism by erecting barriers to trade and investment.
• Emerging market investors face significant
  headwinds linked to government expropriation, which is undermining contract
  certainty and eroding investor confidence.
• Political interference in emerging markets is now
  taking increasingly indirect forms, such as tax pressure, export restrictions,
  more stringent regulatory requirements, contract reviews and a general increase
  in government involvement in specific sectors of the economy.

 

Economic Risks

• The speed of individual emerging market (EM)
  recoveries following the COVID-19 pandemic will likely depend on a state’s
  ability to control the health crisis itself, the economic conditions before the
  COVID-19 pandemic and how much fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is
  administered.
• Significant monetary and fiscal policies are needed
  to limit the pandemic’s fallout on EM economies, though they will not fully
  offset it. Aggressive policy easing will unlikely be enough to avert a fall in
  global growth by 1.3% in 2020.
• Global trade, labour and capital flows are severely
  challenged, as economic nationalism has become a widespread response to
  COVID-19.

 

More information about Aon’s 2020 Risk Maps is available here.

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE:
AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of
risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries
empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver
insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.

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About The Risk Advisory Group

The Aon
Terrorism and Political Violence map represents detailed empirical- and
intelligence-based assessments on
terrorism threats and political violence risks.The map has been produced in
conjunction with The Risk Advisory Group since 2007. The Risk Advisory Group is
a leading, independent global risk management consultancy that helps businesses
grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands. By providing
facts, intelligence and analysis, The Risk Advisory Group helps its clients
negotiate complex and uncertain environments to choose the right opportunities,
in the right markets, with the right partners. For more information, please
visit www.riskadvisory.com. 

About Continuum Economics

Continuum
Economics (formerly Roubini Global Economics) is the international
market-leading service for independent economic research powered by 4Cast and
Roubini Global Economics. With its growing user base of 10,000 clients and a
reputation for incisive analysis on every aspect of the market, it provides
research that spans short-term market signals and long-term strategic themes.
This approach uncovers opportunities and risks before they come to the
attention of markets, helping our clients make more informed decisions.

 

Continuum
Economics works with clients in a series of different ways, from macro strategy
subscription products to bespoke work, multi-client conference calls, direct
access to analysts and the licensing of its systematic country risk analysis
tool. For further information on Continuum Economics, please visit

continuumeconomics.com.