Chinese trade set to remain in growth mode in upcoming quarter

• Moderate decline
  in imports offset by robust exports via air and ocean freight, resulting in
  steady growth
• Important growth
  sectors include Machinery Parts, Industrial Raw Materials and Consumer Fashion
  Goods

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SHANGHAI, CHINA – Media OutReach - 3 December 2018 – China’s trade growth remains solid at an index of 58 points — a
slight decline of one point from the previous quarter, according to data from
the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL,
the world’s leading logistics company.

 

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence
and Big Data, shows that China’s exports via air and ocean trade show no signs
of slowing down despite ongoing trade volatility between it and the United
States and sentiment expecting slowing global trade momentum.

 

While imports for China are expected to
contract in sectors like High Technology and Chemicals & Products, that
decline has been largely offset by strong exports of Machinery Parts,
Industrial Raw Materials, Basic Raw Materials and Consumer Fashion Goods. Both
air and ocean freight volumes remain stable thanks to China’s ongoing export
strength.

 

“This
positive outlook is a welcome sign even as China continues to set the bar
higher in terms of its manufacturing quality, despite emerging struggles in
parts of the consumer fashion industry,[1]”
said
Steve Huang, CEO, DHL Global
Forwarding Greater China. “Exports of raw materials will also continue to grow as
China fosters and renews economic ties with trading partners, including the
latest 29-deal memorandum of understanding with the Philippines for rapid
infrastructural development in line with the Belt and Road.[2]
All this suggests that pessimism surrounding China’s economic fortunes may have
overshot reality, with the country’s historic export strengths continuing to maintain
momentum despite overarching political rhetoric.”

 

The Barometer’s results
also indicate that global trade will continue to grow over the next three
months and that the development of the previous quarters will continue. The
pace of growth, however, will particularly decelerate for Asia except for China.

 

“The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows
that the state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue
to grow around the world. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts,
especially between the United States and China, and economists’ expectations
that the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising that
trade momentum has weakened slightly,” said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global
Forwarding, Freight.

 

Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index — China, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea, the
United Kingdom, and the United States — are above 50 points. In the Global Trade Barometer
methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values
below 50 indicate contraction.

 

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an
innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and future
development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data
that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has
been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world’s leading logistics
company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year.
The next release date is scheduled for March 27, 2019.

 

DHL — The logistics company for the world

 

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL family
of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from
national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment
solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial
supply chain management. With about 360,000 employees in more than 220
countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses
securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions
for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and
healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate
responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is
decisively positioned as “The logistics company for the world”.

 

DHL is part of
Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 60 billion
euros in 2017.