Allianz Global Wealth Report 2023: The next chapter

• Annus horribilis: Global financial assets of private households declined by -2.7%, the strongest drop since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
• Wiped out: Adjusted for inflation, global financial assets were only 6.6% above the 2019 level – in Western Europe real wealth decreased by -2.6%
• No tailwinds: Average growth of financial assets is likely to hover between 4% and 5% over the next three years
• Belt tightening: Growth in households’ liabilities and the debt-to-GDP ratio fell sharply
• Australia: Financial assets decline but by a modest -1.3%

MUNICH–(BUSINESS WIRE)–#GlobalWealthReport–Today, Allianz unveiled the 14^th edition of its “Global Wealth Report”, which puts the asset and debt situation of households in almost 60 countries under the microscope.

Annus horribilis

2022 was an annus horribilis for savers. Asset prices fell across the board in the “everything slump” scenario. The result was a dismal -2.7% decline in private households’ global financial assets¹, the strongest drop since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. Growth rates of the three major asset classes, however, differed markedly. While securities (-7.3%) and insurance/pensions (-4.6%) saw strong setbacks, bank deposits showed robust growth at +6.0%. Overall, financial assets worth EUR 6.6 trillion were lost, total financial assets amounted to EUR 233 trillion at the end of 2022. The decline was most pronounced in North America (-6.2%), followed by Western Europe (-4.8%). Asia, on the other hand – with the exception of Japan – still recorded relatively strong growth rates. China’s financial assets grew robustly, too, clocking growth of 6.9%. But compared to the previous year (+13.3%) and the long-term average of the last 20 years (+15.9%), this was a rather disappointing development – repeated lockdowns clearly took their toll.

Wiped out

Despite bitter losses, global household financial assets were still nearly 19% above pre-Covid-19 levels at the end of last year – in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, almost two-thirds of (nominal) growth fell victim to price increases, reducing real growth to a meagre 6.6% in three years. While most regions could at least preserve some real growth in wealth, the situation in Western Europe is different: Any nominal gains were wiped out, real wealth decreased by -2.6% over 2019.

“For years, savers complained about zero interest rates,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist of Allianz. “But the real enemy of savers is inflation. And not only since the inflation surge after Covid-19. In Australia, for example, assets per capita increased by 240% before inflation over the last 20 years. But after inflation, the increase is a less impressive 106%. This underlines the need for smart saving and increased financial literacy. But inflation is a hard beast to beat. Without some nudges and professional advice for long-term savings most savers might struggle.”

No tailwinds

After the decline in 2022, global financial assets should return to growth in 2023. This is supported above all by the (so far) positive development on the stock markets. All in all, we expect global financial assets to increase by around 6%, also taking into account a further “normalization” of savings behavior. Given a global inflation rate of around 6% in 2023, savers should be spared another year of real losses on their financial assets.

“The mid-term outlook, however, is rather mixed,” said Michaela Grimm, co-author of the report. “There will be no monetary or economic tailwinds to blow. Average growth of financial assets is likely to hover between 4% and 5% over the next three years, under the assumption of average stock markets returns. But like the weather, which gets more extreme amid climate change, more market swings are to be expected in the new geopolitical and economic landscape. ‘Normal’ years might rather become the exception.”

Belt tightening

The interest rate turnaround was also clearly felt on the liabilities side of the private household balance sheet. After global private debt had risen by 7.8% in 2021, growth weakened significantly last year to 5.7%. The sharpest fall was seen in China: last year’s debt growth of +5.4% was the lowest growth on record. Overall, global household liabilities totaled EUR 55.8trn at the end of 2022. As the gap between debt and economic growth widened to 3.9pp, the global debt-to-GDP ratio (liabilities as a percentage of GDP) has fallen significantly by more than 2pp to 66.1% in 2022. This means that the global debt ratio for private households is back at about the same level as it was at the beginning of the millennium – a remarkable level of stability that hardly fits the widespread narrative of a world drowning in debt. However, there have been major shifts in the world debt map. First and foremost, stability characterizes the development in advanced economies. On the other hand, most emerging markets have seen their debt ratios rise sharply over the last two decades. China is at the top of the list, with a ratio that has more than tripled to a good 61%.

Australia: Modest decline

The gross financial assets of Australian households declined by -1.3% in 2022, compared to losses of -8.8% during the GFC. Main cause was the asset class of insurance/pension – with a portfolio share of 55% the dominant asset class in Australia – which lost -6.8% in value. Securities and bank deposits, on the other hand, clocked solid growth rates of 4.0% and 8.5%, respectively. The strong increase of bank deposits – in 2020 and 2021, they even grew by more than 10% – reflects changing savings behaviors. During the pandemic, Australian savers “discovered” bank deposits, the default option for fresh savings: Every second Australian dollar of fresh savings ended up in bank deposits in the last three years; in pre-pandemic times, deposits accounted for only around 25% of fresh savings. Compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, financial assets are still 14.5% higher – but only in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, the increase is a much more modest 3.5%.

Growth in liabilities slowed to 5.6%, after 7.6% in 2021. As a result, and thanks to buoyed nominal GDP growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio fell by 7pp; with 118%, however, it is still one of the highest ratios worldwide. Net financial assets, finally, declined by -6.1%. With net financial assets per capita of EUR 92,630, Australia fell one rung to 12th place in the ranking of the 20 richest countries, overtaken by Japan (financial assets per capita, see table).

Net financial assets per capita in 2022

				In Euro		Y/Y in %		Rank 2002
1		United States		251,860		-8.9		2
2		Switzerland		238,780		-4.4		1
3		Denmark		163,830		-9.9		18
4		Singapore		151,200		+3.9		11
5		Taiwan		141,600		+3.1		10
6		New Zealand		117,760		-7.6		6
7		Canada		117,450		-5.7		9
8		Sweden		116,060		-13.2		15
9		Netherlands		103,120		-18.1		7
10		Belgium		97,790		-7.7		3
11		Japan		96,500		-0.3		4
12		Australia		92,630		-6.1		17
13		Israel		92,370		-3.6		13
14		UK		88,380		-9.2		8
15		Ireland		71,360		-3.9		16
16		Italy		69,350		-6.9		5
17		France		67,500		-7.1		12
18		Austria		65,330		-4.6		14
19		Germany		63,540		-8.3		19
20		Malta		49,500		+0.6		20

The interactive “Allianz Global Wealth Map” can be found here on our homepage:

https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/research-data/interactive-wealth-map.html

You can find the study here on our homepage: https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research.html

About Allianz

The Allianz Group is one of the world’s leading insurers and asset managers with more than 122 million* private and corporate customers in more than 70 countries. Allianz customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate insurance services, ranging from property, life and health insurance to assistance services to credit insurance and global business insurance. Allianz is one of the world’s largest investors, managing around 683 billion euros** on behalf of its insurance customers. Furthermore, our asset managers PIMCO and Allianz Global Investors manage about 1.6 trillion euros of third-party assets. Thanks to our systematic integration of ecological and social criteria in our business processes and investment decisions, we are among the leaders in the insurance industry in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. In 2022, over 159,000 employees achieved total revenues of 152.7 billion euros and an operating profit of 14.2 billion euros for the group.

* Including non-consolidated entities with Allianz customers.

** As of Dec 31, 2022

These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.

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This document includes forward-looking statements, such as prospects or expectations, that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance figures, or events may differ significantly from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.

Deviations may arise due to changes in factors including, but not limited to, the following: (i) the general economic and competitive situation in the Allianz’s core business and core markets, (ii) the performance of financial markets (in particular market volatility, liquidity, and credit events), (iii) adverse publicity, regulatory actions or litigation with respect to the Allianz Group, other well-known companies and the financial services industry generally, (iv) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, including those resulting from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (v) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (vi) persistency levels, (vii) the extent of credit defaults, (viii) interest rate levels, (ix) currency exchange rates, most notably the EUR/USD exchange rate, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (xi) the impact of acquisitions including and related integration issues and reorganization measures, and (xii) the general competitive conditions that, in each individual case, apply at a local, regional, national, and/or global level. Many of these changes can be exacerbated by terrorist activities.

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¹ Financial assets include cash and bank deposits, receivables from insurance companies and pension institutions, securities (shares, bonds and investment funds) and other receivables.

Contacts

Lorenz Weimann

Tel. +49 89 3800 16891

e-mail: lorenz.weimann@allianz.com